Recent Channel Four documentary on Brexit, Remain 54% v Leave 46%, may prove to be a game-changer – especially in 1066 Country. The pollsters data has been used to estimate the changes in vote in each local authority area and that should have powerful implications for our two MPs as both stated publicly that they voted Remain – despite the “will of the people” expressed in their constituency. Survation have now provided the strongest evidence yet that the “will” has changed as voters have witnessed the shambolic negotiations conducted by the Government. The estimates for our local MPs are:
Amber Rudd – Hastings & Rye: Leave support in Hasting Borough Council area (three–quarters of the electors) has declined sharply from 55% to 46% - a 9 point decline that would give a significant majority to Remain in a People’s Vote. Even allowing for the Leavers from Rother District Council area, Amber Rudd should feel comfortable in voting to Remain.
Huw Merriman – Bexhill and Battle: The Rother part of his constituency has moved significantly away from Leave – by 5 points – but seems to be still 53% Leave. The Wealden District Council voters have also shifted and now seem to be evenly split. So Remain-voting Merriman will face a more difficult decision when voting for what he personally believes is in the best interests of the constituents that he represents – the whole purpose of “representative democracy”.
The polling evidence is now growing that public opinion is shifting in response to more detailed information about the genuine implications of Brexit – and the mess of the negotiations. In 1066 Country, that shift in opinion seems to have taken us to a dead heat. The only sensible way to know the newly-informed “will of the people” is to have a People’s Vote on whatever deal – if any - the Government actually delivers for consideration by Parliament and country.
“Survation surveyed 20,090 people living in the UK, across every parliamentary constituency for a live discussion programme on Channel 4, “Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks”. This is the largest independent survey of its kind on Brexit and it’s been used, by Dr Chris Hanretty from Royal Holloway University, to produce estimates of how every area of the UK would vote if there was a Leave/Remain referendum tomorrow.
Estimated UK-wide results of EU referendum voting intention:
If the UK was to have another referendum tomorrow on whether the UK should remain a member of the EU or leave, our estimates show that the public would vote to Remain by 54% to 46, after voting to Leave by 52% to 48% two and a half years ago.”